Merchant / C&I — outside the auction
Without the LRCAP 30 MW floor: how much would a BESS of any size have captured in PLD (Brazil's spot price) arbitrage, by submarket? Each point is one historical year (2021–2026); IRR and payback answer “what if that year repeated over the horizon?”. A band of scenarios, not a forecast — and a theoretical ceiling (perfect window).
Looking for home / distributed generation storage? We don't model residential MMGD yet — for rooftop solar, see SimSolar.
C&I value stack (demand, backup, quality, MMGD) is not modeled — only PLD arbitrage.
full year · ○ partial year (annualized by 365/days) · dashed line: reference annual cost with the assumptions above. Theoretical ceiling (perfect 4 h window) — not a forecast or guaranteed capture.
Year by year — NE (Nordeste)
| Year | Margin (R$ mi/MW) | Revenue (5 MW) | Real IRR if it repeats | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0,02 | R$ 0,11 mi | — | — |
| 2022 | 0,00 | R$ 0,00 mi | — | — |
| 2023 | 0,01 | R$ 0,07 mi | — | — |
| 2024 | 0,09 | R$ 0,43 mi | — | 310.1 years |
| 2025 | 0,17 | R$ 0,83 mi | — | 48.7 years |
| 2026 (partial, annualized) | 0,28 | R$ 1,41 mi | — | 22.0 years |
Reference annualized cost: R$ 0,68 mi/MW·year (capex R$ 1.167/kWh × 4 h, annuity at 10% real over 15 years, + O&M 1,5% + charges). Caveats: (i) theoretical ceiling — perfect window with perfect same-day information; (ii) PLD ≠ contracted free-market price; (iii) network charges depend on the tariff class (double charge confirmed by ANEEL); (iv) degradation not modeled. PLD: CCEE via spotcast, 01/01/2021 → 10/07/2026. The December auction requires ≥ 30 MW — rules here (in Portuguese); method in the methodology (in Portuguese).